How we built it
We modelled seven Ontario households across a 30-day winter month, with 21 weekdays and nine weekend days. Each has an hour-by-hour usage shape: a morning bump, a quiet midday, and a strong evening peak, with weekends spread more evenly. Every figure covers the Electricity line only, before the Ontario Electricity Rebate and HST, at November 1, 2026 prices. Delivery and regulatory charges are excluded because plan choice does not change them.
The inputs are illustrative, not measured, and they are stated so you can adjust for your own home. Base load is 450 kWh for a small home and 750 kWh for a family with gas heat. The home office adds about 6 kWh each weekday, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., for computers, monitors and a little supplementary heat.
The electric vehicle adds about 400 kWh in a winter month. Natural Resources Canada's fuel consumption ratings are based on 20,000 km a year, and at the 17 to 21 kWh per 100 km typical of current EVs that works out to roughly 280 to 350 kWh a month before winter range loss and charging losses push it higher.
The heat pump adds an assumed 1,300 kWh of heating draw in a cold month on top of the base load. Air-source heat pump efficiency falls in the cold, with Natural Resources Canada putting typical coefficients of performance at 2.0 to 5.4 at 8°C and 1.1 to 3.7 at -8°C. Heat-pump load follows the weather, so it runs through both peaks and cannot be shifted overnight on command.
The results
These are modelled commodity costs, not promised savings. Your own pattern will move every number. What should hold is the ranking logic.
Low and moderate users: Tiered quietly wins
The first three rows share a pattern. None of these homes crosses 1,000 kWh, so on Tiered every kilowatt-hour costs 11.2 cents. On TOU, the same homes pay on-peak prices for the morning rush and the early evening, and their blended average lands above Tier 1. The gap is modest, about $4 to $12 a month in our model, which lines up with Alectra's expectation-setting: on its rate options page, the distributor tells customers the difference between plans is unlikely to exceed a few dollars a month, and suggests Tiered for homes using under 700 kWh.
The home-office row makes the case even stronger. Working from home adds mid-peak and on-peak daytime use, which is exactly the load TOU prices hardest.
EV households: the overnight charger is not enough
This is the finding that cuts against the usual advice. Got an EV? Pick ULO. Not necessarily.
A typical 750 kWh family that changes nothing about its evenings pays about $33 a month more on ULO than on TOU before any charging happens. Each overnight kilowatt-hour then claws back only 5.4 cents. To break even on charging alone, that family would need roughly 620 kWh of overnight charging a month, far more than a commuter's car uses. In our model, the family with an overnight EV still landed about $12 a month better off on TOU.
What flips the verdict is the evening, not the car. Move 40% of weekday 4 to 9 p.m. use past 11 p.m. by delaying the dishwasher, the dryer and any water-heater timer, and the same household drops to $114 on ULO against $123 on TOU. The car makes ULO possible. The evening routine makes it pay.
For homes still choosing a charger, our guide to home EV charging covers the scheduling features that make overnight-only charging automatic.
The second EV row is a warning. Plug in at 6 p.m. on arrival and ULO becomes the most expensive plan by roughly $90 a month. Charging schedules are not optional on this plan.
Heat-pump homes: TOU by default
A heat-pump home blows through the 1,000 kWh threshold, so Tiered loses its edge as most of the load bills at 13.2 cents. ULO struggles too, because a heat pump draws power through the 4 to 9 p.m. window whether you like it or not. The result is that TOU is the default fit, about $12 a month ahead of Tiered and $46 ahead of ULO in our model.
ULO only becomes competitive once a heat-pump home adds a large overnight load, such as an EV, and also trims its evenings. That combination produced the largest ULO advantage in the matrix.
How we built it
We modelled seven Ontario households across a 30-day winter month, with 21 weekdays and nine weekend days. Each has an hour-by-hour usage shape: a morning bump, a quiet midday, and a strong evening peak, with weekends spread more evenly. Every figure covers the Electricity line only, before the Ontario Electricity Rebate and HST, at November 1, 2026 prices. Delivery and regulatory charges are excluded because plan choice does not change them.
The inputs are illustrative, not measured, and they are stated so you can adjust for your own home. Base load is 450 kWh for a small home and 750 kWh for a family with gas heat. The home office adds about 6 kWh each weekday, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., for computers, monitors and a little supplementary heat.
The electric vehicle adds about 400 kWh in a winter month. Natural Resources Canada's fuel consumption ratings are based on 20,000 km a year, and at the 17 to 21 kWh per 100 km typical of current EVs that works out to roughly 280 to 350 kWh a month before winter range loss and charging losses push it higher.
The heat pump adds an assumed 1,300 kWh of heating draw in a cold month on top of the base load. Air-source heat pump efficiency falls in the cold, with Natural Resources Canada putting typical coefficients of performance at 2.0 to 5.4 at 8°C and 1.1 to 3.7 at -8°C. Heat-pump load follows the weather, so it runs through both peaks and cannot be shifted overnight on command.
The results
These are modelled commodity costs, not promised savings. Your own pattern will move every number. What should hold is the ranking logic.
Low and moderate users: Tiered quietly wins
The first three rows share a pattern. None of these homes crosses 1,000 kWh, so on Tiered every kilowatt-hour costs 11.2 cents. On TOU, the same homes pay on-peak prices for the morning rush and the early evening, and their blended average lands above Tier 1. The gap is modest, about $4 to $12 a month in our model, which lines up with Alectra's expectation-setting: on its rate options page, the distributor tells customers the difference between plans is unlikely to exceed a few dollars a month, and suggests Tiered for homes using under 700 kWh.
The home-office row makes the case even stronger. Working from home adds mid-peak and on-peak daytime use, which is exactly the load TOU prices hardest.
EV households: the overnight charger is not enough
This is the finding that cuts against the usual advice. Got an EV? Pick ULO. Not necessarily.
A typical 750 kWh family that changes nothing about its evenings pays about $33 a month more on ULO than on TOU before any charging happens. Each overnight kilowatt-hour then claws back only 5.4 cents. To break even on charging alone, that family would need roughly 620 kWh of overnight charging a month, far more than a commuter's car uses. In our model, the family with an overnight EV still landed about $12 a month better off on TOU.
What flips the verdict is the evening, not the car. Move 40% of weekday 4 to 9 p.m. use past 11 p.m. by delaying the dishwasher, the dryer and any water-heater timer, and the same household drops to $114 on ULO against $123 on TOU. The car makes ULO possible. The evening routine makes it pay.
For homes still choosing a charger, our guide to home EV charging covers the scheduling features that make overnight-only charging automatic.
The second EV row is a warning. Plug in at 6 p.m. on arrival and ULO becomes the most expensive plan by roughly $90 a month. Charging schedules are not optional on this plan.
Heat-pump homes: TOU by default
A heat-pump home blows through the 1,000 kWh threshold, so Tiered loses its edge as most of the load bills at 13.2 cents. ULO struggles too, because a heat pump draws power through the 4 to 9 p.m. window whether you like it or not. The result is that TOU is the default fit, about $12 a month ahead of Tiered and $46 ahead of ULO in our model.
ULO only becomes competitive once a heat-pump home adds a large overnight load, such as an EV, and also trims its evenings. That combination produced the largest ULO advantage in the matrix.
