Most advice about basement condensation is written for July, when hot, sticky air drifts down the stairs and meets concrete that is sitting against cool soil. Fall changes that picture in a way that actually works in your favour as a diagnostician, because the ground and the air cool on very different schedules.
The ground runs months behind the air
Soil is slow to warm and slow to cool. A classic National Research Council digest on ground temperatures in Canada explains that below the surface, the yearly high and low arrive later than they do at the surface, with the delay growing steadily with depth; several metres down, the warmest point of the year lands roughly six months after the peak of summer. The practical result for your basement is that in early October the soil pressed against the lower part of your foundation is still carrying a good share of summer's warmth, even as the evenings outside turn crisp.
That is why the classic summer pattern, where the whole below-grade wall sweats evenly, tends to fade as fall settles in. The lower wall is simply not as cold relative to the air as it was a couple of months ago.
Where the damp shows up tells you something
What does get cold in October is everything above the soil line or close to the outdoor air. The top band of concrete that sits above grade, the rim joist where the floor framing rests on the foundation, basement windows, and the cold-water pipe coming in from the street all cool quickly as the nights drop. Those are the surfaces where condensation now forms first.
Groundwater follows a different geography. It is pushed by gravity and by the soil around the foundation, so it tends to appear low: along the joint where the wall meets the floor, around a crack, beneath a window well, or in one stubborn patch near a downspout. If you are also noticing a musty smell or a bit of surface growth, our guide to why mould grows in Canadian homes explains how seasonal moisture sets the stage; for now, simply make a note of where the damp is, because location is the first clue you will feed into the table.