The central insight from the DBRS assessment is a distinction most coverage of wildfire season skips: the financial impact on insurers depends far less on total area burned than on whether fires threaten major population centres and dense concentrations of insured property. Acreage is an environmental measure. Insured loss is a geographic one.
That distinction explains 2026's split screen. Of more than 900 active fires nationally, the most significant are concentrated in remote parts of northwestern Ontario and northern Québec — regions where insurance penetration, property values, and population density are relatively low. The fires are large. The insured exposure underneath them is not.
Where the fires sit this year is why direct property claims, evacuation costs, and additional-living-expense claims are all expected to stay manageable. If you want to see how that geography plays out where you live, our guide to wildfire season by province breaks down the risk picture region by region.