New Condo Prices Fell in Five of Nine Cities in Q3 2026, Pressuring Resale Values for Existing Condo Owners

Victoria, Vancouver, Toronto, Edmonton and Calgary

These five markets are where the competitive-ceiling effect is most plausible, because new inventory is being priced lower at the same time resale buyers have more choice.

Toronto. The apartment benchmark across the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's September 2026 tables was $527,200, down 6.67% from a year earlier; in the City of Toronto alone it was $543,800, down 6.36%. Owners in buildings near recently completed towers face the most direct comparison with developer pricing.

Calgary. The new-unit decline was small at 0.3%, but resale apartments are under clear pressure. The Calgary Real Estate Board's September release put the apartment benchmark at $291,400, down more than 8% from a year earlier, with about five months of supply. CREB's chief economist linked the broader shift to a construction boom concentrated in higher-density housing.

Vancouver. Metro Vancouver's apartment benchmark was $682,500 in September 2026, down 0.5% from August and 6.2% from a year earlier, according to Greater Vancouver REALTORS data published through CREA. New-unit prices have now fallen in both the second and third quarters.

Victoria. This is the clearest case for caution about cause and effect. Victoria's new-unit index fell 1.8%, the most of any city, yet the Victoria Core condo benchmark of $547,800 in September was about 1% above a year earlier. It was, however, lower than August's $553,600. New-build discounts may still be working their way into resale prices, or the core market may simply be insulated from where new supply is concentrated. Either way, the citywide index alone would have pointed owners in the wrong direction.

Edmonton. The Greater Edmonton Area apartment benchmark was $197,400 in September, down 1.1% from a year earlier, while apartment sales fell 15.4%. Lower sales volumes mean fewer fresh comparables, which can give each new-build sale more weight in an appraisal.

For an earlier look at how Toronto and Calgary condos diverged from detached homes, see our report on condo benchmarks falling 6.7% in Toronto and 8.3% in Calgary.

Why the exception is narrower than it looks

New-unit prices rose in both cities this quarter, which reduces the risk that developer discounting will set a lower ceiling for nearby resale units. That is a genuine difference from the declining markets. It is not the same as rising resale values.

Ottawa. The Ottawa Real Estate Board's September data show an apartment benchmark of $380,800, down 3.1% from August and 6.1% from a year earlier. So while developers raised prices on comparable new units by 1.6%, resale apartments moved the other way. One explanation is that new and resale condos in Ottawa serve different buyers, or that new projects are concentrated in different neighbourhoods. Whatever the cause, Ottawa owners should not read the rising new-condo index as a signal that their unit has gained value. The index also covers only the Ontario part of the region; on the Quebec side, Gatineau's condo median fell 5% in the third quarter.

Montréal. The resale data line up more closely with the new-unit index here. The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers' Q3 report put the Montréal-area condo median at $435,000, up 2% from a year earlier. But conditions are loosening: condo sales fell 16%, listings rose 17%, and condos took 61 days to sell, 13 days longer than a year earlier. The association described the Island of Montreal's condo market as sitting between balanced and buyer-favouring conditions, and said downtown and southwest Montréal already face an oversupply. An owner in a downtown tower may be in a very different position from one in a suburb with little new construction.

Plan around recent comparables, not your purchase price

The practical question for most owners is not where the index went. It is what a buyer, or an appraiser, will say your unit is worth now.

If you are selling. In the five declining markets, expect buyers to compare your listing with new units nearby, including any incentives. Ask your agent for sales in your building and immediate area from the last three to six months, and for active listings of completed new units nearby. Your 2022 purchase price is not part of that comparison.

If you are refinancing or renewing with a switch. A new lender will usually order an appraisal. In markets where resale benchmarks are down 6% to 8% from a year ago, budgeting for an appraisal below your own estimate is prudent. A lower appraised value raises your loan-to-value ratio, which can affect the terms available.

If you are planning a HELOC. The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada notes that a HELOC can let you borrow up to 65% of your home's value, and that lenders may use an appraisal to set that value. The arithmetic is direct: on a condo appraised at $500,000 instead of $530,000, the 65% ceiling falls by $19,500. Renovation budgets, debt consolidation plans or other borrowing built on an older value estimate should be rechecked against current comparables.

Limits of the index and the benchmarks

Every number in this article describes a market, not a unit. The new-condo index tracks developer prices for comparable new units across a whole metropolitan area. The resale benchmarks describe a typical apartment defined by its attributes, and the Quebec figures are medians that shift with the mix of sales. None of them knows your floor, view, exposure, parking, condo fees, reserve fund health or upcoming special assessments.

Those building-level details can move a value more than a one-quarter change in an index. A well-funded reserve and stable fees can help a unit hold its value against new-build competition; a looming special assessment can work in the opposite direction. Neighbourhood matters too: the Montréal and Ottawa data show that a single region can contain both oversupplied pockets and tight ones.

Future supply will also shape the pressure. Fewer condo projects are starting now than a few years ago, which over time reduces the volume of new units competing with resale listings. Our report on lenders being pressed to lower the 70% condo presale threshold explains why new condo starts have slowed.

The Q3 index is a useful signal of direction. For any decision about your own unit, the evidence that counts is what similar units nearby have actually sold for, recently.