Vancouver Detached Sales Surge 14% While Condos Sink — What the Split Means for Your Equity

Two Risks, Pointing in Opposite Directions

Macklem's opening remarks did three things. They named the inflation path. They explained why the Bank is willing to look through it. And they identified the specific shocks that could pull policy in either direction.

CPI inflation rose from 1.8% in February to 2.4% in March on sharply higher gasoline prices, the Governor told the committee, and is projected to peak around 3% in April before easing back to the 2% target by early 2027. The base case assumes oil prices follow market expectations and that higher energy costs do not feed broadly into other goods and services. So far, the Bank sees limited evidence of that pass-through. But Macklem was explicit on the line he will not let the Bank cross: "If energy prices stay high, we will not let their effects become persistent inflation."

That's the symmetry. On one side, sustained oil-price strength that broadens into general inflation could prompt consecutive rate increases off the current 2.25% policy rate, a stance the Bank reinforced when it held rates at 2.25% in April. On the other side, significant new U.S. trade restrictions on Canada — a real possibility given the upcoming Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement renegotiation — could push the Bank toward further rate cuts to support growth. The U.S. Federal Reserve leadership change adds another variable, though Macklem suggested Fed policy is likely to remain continuous through the transition.

Underneath both scenarios is a labour market holding in the 6.5%–7% unemployment range. That softness limits how aggressively the Bank can tighten without breaking household balance sheets, but it also means rate relief isn't free — it would come with weaker employment as the trigger.

A Tale of Three Property Types

The April 2026 release from Greater Vancouver Realtors shows total residential sales of 2,110 — down 2.5% from April 2025 and 22.9% below the 10-year seasonal average. The composite benchmark price came in at $1,098,000, a 6.9% year-over-year decline. The headline number is soft. But the property-type breakdown, as reported by Canadian Mortgage Trends, reveals three distinct stories layered inside that single composite.

Detached homes sold 659 units, up 14% year-over-year. Condo apartments sold 1,009, down 10.7%. Townhouses (attached) sold 433, down 2%. The benchmark prices tell a complementary but more cautious story: detached at $1,840,700 (down 8.3% year-over-year, down 0.8% month-over-month), condos at $703,000 (down 7.9% year-over-year, down 0.5% month-over-month), and townhouses at $1,043,400 (down 5.1% year-over-year, down 0.4% month-over-month).

That is the split: detached demand is rebuilding while detached prices are still drifting down — fastest, in fact, among the three segments year-over-year. Condo demand is cooling further while condo prices keep softening. Townhouses are the most resilient on price but are losing demand modestly. Three different curves, one city.

GVR chief economist Andrew Lis flagged the pattern as "consistent across most areas," which matters: if the divergence were geographic, you could explain it away with neighbourhood-specific stories. Broad-based divergence is harder to dismiss. Lis suggested the detached segment may be acting as a bellwether — a leading indicator for buyer sentiment — and that multi-family segments could follow suit if the pattern holds, which would slowly draw down standing inventory unless a wave of new sellers arrives first.

The sales-to-active listings ratio is the cleanest single read on which way prices are leaning. Below 12% sustained tends to apply downward pressure. Above 20% sustained tends to push prices up. Detached at 11.3% sits just below that lower threshold. Condos at 14.7% and townhouses at 15.0% sit comfortably in the middle. Inventory remains elevated overall — total listings of 16,236 are 37.9% above the 10-year average — which is the single biggest reason prices haven't responded to the detached sales pickup yet.

This is the bridge from sales data to balance sheet. The same dynamic showed up nationally in Q4 2025, where outstanding mortgage debt grew faster than real estate values. Vancouver is now showing the same pattern at the property-type level inside a single city.

From Comparable Sales to Appraised Value

For a homeowner approaching renewal, a market split is not abstract. It enters the file as a number: the appraised value the lender will use to calculate loan-to-value at renewal or refinance.

CMHC describes a property's valuation as a snapshot of what the home is worth today relative to current market conditions and recent sales of similar properties. When a more in-depth assessment is needed, a professional appraisal is ordered, which involves comparing the property's physical and functional characteristics against recent sales of comparable units in nearby areas. Sometimes, CMHC notes, the resulting value will not support the requested loan amount.

That last sentence is where the Vancouver split lands. A condo owner up for renewal in mid-2026 is being valued against a comp set that has fallen 7.9% year-over-year. A detached owner is being valued against a comp set that has fallen 8.3% — but with sales activity rebuilding, that comp set is also more recent and more representative. Two owners with the same starting LTV at origination can end up with materially different LTVs at renewal simply because of what type of building they live in, and how thinly the recent comps are spread.

The appraisal nuance is more than academic for condo owners. OSFI has warned banks that blanket condo appraisals may breach federal LTV rules in markets where prices have moved sharply, which means the assumption that "a condo is a condo" inside a single building is being scrutinized at the regulatory level. The mechanics matter for three downstream choices: whether refinancing is available without insurance complications, how much HELOC capacity has been preserved, and whether the lender requires CMHC-insured renewal terms versus uninsured. None of these are abstract financial-engineering questions. They show up as different rate offers and different fees on the renewal letter.

The Math of the Coming Two Years

Roughly 60% of all outstanding Canadian mortgages are expected to renew in 2025 or 2026, according to a Bank of Canada staff analytical note. Under market-implied rate paths, average monthly mortgage payments could be roughly 10% higher for those renewing in 2025 and 6% higher for those renewing in 2026 relative to December 2024 levels. Five-year fixed-rate borrowers are looking at typical increases of 15% to 20%.

The reassuring counterweight is that the federal mortgage stress test was designed for exactly this scenario. More than 90% of borrowers with five-year fixed-rate mortgages are projected to face renewal payment increases smaller than the levels they were originally stress-tested for. Many households also have meaningful equity buffers from earlier price gains. The renewal wave is not a cliff. It's a step up — but a step that was modelled in advance.

The picture is also evolving in real time. TD Economics now estimates the average 2026 renewal payment shock has eased to about 6%, down from roughly 10% in 2025, as rates have come off their cycle highs. That's a national average, not a Vancouver-specific number. In a Vancouver renewal file, the payment math is one input. The appraised value — the equity side of the balance sheet — is the other.

Higher-for-Longer

If oil prices stay elevated and inflation broadens beyond energy, Macklem's framework points to consecutive rate hikes off the 2.25% starting point. Fixed-rate renewal offers would likely climb as five-year bond yields rise. Variable-rate borrowers would absorb the moves directly.

The Vancouver implication is segment-asymmetric. Condo demand is the most rate-sensitive of the three property types because the buyer pool skews toward first-time buyers and entry-level purchasers carrying tighter qualification budgets. Higher rates compress that buyer pool fastest, which would put further pressure on condo benchmark prices and condo appraisal values — and, by extension, on condo-owner equity at renewal. Detached buyers tend to be more equity-rich and less marginal on financing. They would still feel the rate move, but the demand response is more muted, and the comp set is firming rather than weakening.

Rate Relief

If CUSMA negotiations deteriorate and U.S. trade restrictions tighten Canadian growth, rate cuts become more likely. Macklem stated explicitly that the Bank may need to lower the policy rate to support the economy in that scenario.

The Vancouver implication is also segment-asymmetric — but in the opposite direction. Lower rates expand qualification budgets, which would re-engage the marginal condo buyer first. That's the segment where a 50-basis-point cut moves the most monthly payment math. Detached demand would benefit too, but from a baseline that is already firming. The current detached-condo gap could compress under rate relief, partially reversing the divergence visible in April. For homeowners with preserved equity, rate relief also reopens optionality on products like HELOCs, which can flex with renewal timing — a fuller breakdown of how home equity products work sits in our hub guide.

The honest answer is that nobody — including the Bank — knows which scenario plays out. The point of Macklem's testimony was to make both paths legible. The point of the Vancouver split is to remind homeowners that local market reality is segment-specific, not citywide.

Three observations stand without crossing into advice.

First, equity is not fixed. The mortgage balance amortizes on a schedule. The appraised value moves with the comp set. In a city where that comp set now varies by 8 percentage points across property types within a single year, the equity position embedded in a renewal file is more property-type-dependent than it has been in years.

Second, the renewal decision is a scenario decision, not a forecast decision. Macklem's symmetric framing isn't a hedge — it's the actual policy stance. Treating the rate environment as a single point estimate (whether "rates will rise" or "rates will fall") is a less accurate read of the May 4 testimony than treating it as two stated triggers with two stated responses.

Third, property type now belongs in the renewal conversation alongside rate, term, and amortization. A detached owner and a condo owner in the same Vancouver neighbourhood are looking at different equity trajectories, different appraisal sensitivity, and different refinancing flexibility — even if their mortgages were originated on the same day at the same rate. The Vancouver split is, at the homeowner level, a reminder that "the housing market" is no longer a single market.