Big Banks Pressed to Lower 70% Condo Presale Threshold as Construction Starts Hit 15-Year Low

The "why now" of this story is the data on presales, not the data on starts. CMHC's Fall 2025 Housing Supply Report notes that the Toronto CMA is tracking to its lowest level of housing starts in 30 years as of mid-2025, with pre-construction sales continuing to fall by double digits and developers delaying launches and scaling back land acquisitions. In the Vancouver area, CMHC reports condominium apartment starts fell 13.4% in the first half of 2025, and identifies failure to hit "the roughly 70% presale threshold needed for financing" as a direct cause of project cancellations and pauses. The language is the regulator's own.

The presale numbers underneath those starts numbers are worse. Urbanation data summarized in pre-construction market reports puts 2025 new pre-construction condo sales in the GTA at 1,599 units — the lowest level since 1991, roughly 91% below the 10-year average. A Q2 2025 read on the same data set has the GTA at 502 new condo sales for the quarter, with new condo starts down 57% year-over-year and 84% versus two years prior. Those are the numbers that have to clear a 70% presale bar.

In the resale market, the price line is the one existing condo owners feel directly. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's April 2026 report has the GTA average selling price at $1,051,969, down 4.9% year-over-year, with the average condo apartment price across the region at $635,653 — down 6.3%. CMHC's 2025 market-risk analysis adds the comparison window: between 2022 and Q1 2025, average resale condo apartment prices fell about 13.4% in Toronto and 2.7% in Vancouver, and Toronto's months of inventory for pre-construction condos in Q1 2025 was more than 14 times higher than in 2022, with roughly 55% of pre-construction units unsold.

For broader supply context, the Ontario government's revised housing start forecast down to 64,800 units — 30,000 behind its 1.5-million-home target pace shows the gap is not closing on its own.

The "why now" of this story is the data on presales, not the data on starts. CMHC's Fall 2025 Housing Supply Report notes that the Toronto CMA is tracking to its lowest level of housing starts in 30 years as of mid-2025, with pre-construction sales continuing to fall by double digits and developers delaying launches and scaling back land acquisitions. In the Vancouver area, CMHC reports condominium apartment starts fell 13.4% in the first half of 2025, and identifies failure to hit "the roughly 70% presale threshold needed for financing" as a direct cause of project cancellations and pauses. The language is the regulator's own.

The presale numbers underneath those starts numbers are worse. Urbanation data summarized in pre-construction market reports puts 2025 new pre-construction condo sales in the GTA at 1,599 units — the lowest level since 1991, roughly 91% below the 10-year average. A Q2 2025 read on the same data set has the GTA at 502 new condo sales for the quarter, with new condo starts down 57% year-over-year and 84% versus two years prior. Those are the numbers that have to clear a 70% presale bar.

In the resale market, the price line is the one existing condo owners feel directly. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's April 2026 report has the GTA average selling price at $1,051,969, down 4.9% year-over-year, with the average condo apartment price across the region at $635,653 — down 6.3%. CMHC's 2025 market-risk analysis adds the comparison window: between 2022 and Q1 2025, average resale condo apartment prices fell about 13.4% in Toronto and 2.7% in Vancouver, and Toronto's months of inventory for pre-construction condos in Q1 2025 was more than 14 times higher than in 2022, with roughly 55% of pre-construction units unsold.

For broader supply context, the Ontario government's revised housing start forecast down to 64,800 units — 30,000 behind its 1.5-million-home target pace shows the gap is not closing on its own.

The "why now" of this story is the data on presales, not the data on starts. CMHC's Fall 2025 Housing Supply Report notes that the Toronto CMA is tracking to its lowest level of housing starts in 30 years as of mid-2025, with pre-construction sales continuing to fall by double digits and developers delaying launches and scaling back land acquisitions. In the Vancouver area, CMHC reports condominium apartment starts fell 13.4% in the first half of 2025, and identifies failure to hit "the roughly 70% presale threshold needed for financing" as a direct cause of project cancellations and pauses. The language is the regulator's own.

The presale numbers underneath those starts numbers are worse. Urbanation data summarized in pre-construction market reports puts 2025 new pre-construction condo sales in the GTA at 1,599 units — the lowest level since 1991, roughly 91% below the 10-year average. A Q2 2025 read on the same data set has the GTA at 502 new condo sales for the quarter, with new condo starts down 57% year-over-year and 84% versus two years prior. Those are the numbers that have to clear a 70% presale bar.

In the resale market, the price line is the one existing condo owners feel directly. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's April 2026 report has the GTA average selling price at $1,051,969, down 4.9% year-over-year, with the average condo apartment price across the region at $635,653 — down 6.3%. CMHC's 2025 market-risk analysis adds the comparison window: between 2022 and Q1 2025, average resale condo apartment prices fell about 13.4% in Toronto and 2.7% in Vancouver, and Toronto's months of inventory for pre-construction condos in Q1 2025 was more than 14 times higher than in 2022, with roughly 55% of pre-construction units unsold.

For broader supply context, the Ontario government's revised housing start forecast down to 64,800 units — 30,000 behind its 1.5-million-home target pace shows the gap is not closing on its own.

The "why now" of this story is the data on presales, not the data on starts. CMHC's Fall 2025 Housing Supply Report notes that the Toronto CMA is tracking to its lowest level of housing starts in 30 years as of mid-2025, with pre-construction sales continuing to fall by double digits and developers delaying launches and scaling back land acquisitions. In the Vancouver area, CMHC reports condominium apartment starts fell 13.4% in the first half of 2025, and identifies failure to hit "the roughly 70% presale threshold needed for financing" as a direct cause of project cancellations and pauses. The language is the regulator's own.

The presale numbers underneath those starts numbers are worse. Urbanation data summarized in pre-construction market reports puts 2025 new pre-construction condo sales in the GTA at 1,599 units — the lowest level since 1991, roughly 91% below the 10-year average. A Q2 2025 read on the same data set has the GTA at 502 new condo sales for the quarter, with new condo starts down 57% year-over-year and 84% versus two years prior. Those are the numbers that have to clear a 70% presale bar.

In the resale market, the price line is the one existing condo owners feel directly. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's April 2026 report has the GTA average selling price at $1,051,969, down 4.9% year-over-year, with the average condo apartment price across the region at $635,653 — down 6.3%. CMHC's 2025 market-risk analysis adds the comparison window: between 2022 and Q1 2025, average resale condo apartment prices fell about 13.4% in Toronto and 2.7% in Vancouver, and Toronto's months of inventory for pre-construction condos in Q1 2025 was more than 14 times higher than in 2022, with roughly 55% of pre-construction units unsold.

For broader supply context, the Ontario government's revised housing start forecast down to 64,800 units — 30,000 behind its 1.5-million-home target pace shows the gap is not closing on its own.

The brand-spin loop in plain form: high presale threshold → fewer starts → unsold inventory takes longer to clear → resale condo prices keep softening → presale demand weakens further → conversion funds step in to clear inventory at institutional pricing → building tenure shifts → resale comps in the area absorb that pricing. None of the links in that chain are speculative individually. The question for the next several quarters is whether they keep firing in sequence or whether something — bank lending standards, OSFI capital treatment, government supply policy, or a return of presale demand — interrupts the loop.

The "why now" of this story is the data on presales, not the data on starts. CMHC's Fall 2025 Housing Supply Report notes that the Toronto CMA is tracking to its lowest level of housing starts in 30 years as of mid-2025, with pre-construction sales continuing to fall by double digits and developers delaying launches and scaling back land acquisitions. In the Vancouver area, CMHC reports condominium apartment starts fell 13.4% in the first half of 2025, and identifies failure to hit "the roughly 70% presale threshold needed for financing" as a direct cause of project cancellations and pauses. The language is the regulator's own.

The presale numbers underneath those starts numbers are worse. Urbanation data summarized in pre-construction market reports puts 2025 new pre-construction condo sales in the GTA at 1,599 units — the lowest level since 1991, roughly 91% below the 10-year average. A Q2 2025 read on the same data set has the GTA at 502 new condo sales for the quarter, with new condo starts down 57% year-over-year and 84% versus two years prior. Those are the numbers that have to clear a 70% presale bar.

In the resale market, the price line is the one existing condo owners feel directly. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's April 2026 report has the GTA average selling price at $1,051,969, down 4.9% year-over-year, with the average condo apartment price across the region at $635,653 — down 6.3%. CMHC's 2025 market-risk analysis adds the comparison window: between 2022 and Q1 2025, average resale condo apartment prices fell about 13.4% in Toronto and 2.7% in Vancouver, and Toronto's months of inventory for pre-construction condos in Q1 2025 was more than 14 times higher than in 2022, with roughly 55% of pre-construction units unsold.

For broader supply context, the Ontario government's revised housing start forecast down to 64,800 units — 30,000 behind its 1.5-million-home target pace shows the gap is not closing on its own.