The paper puts arithmetic behind the shift, and the arithmetic is where the story stops being abstract.
Ontario municipalities collected $2.77 billion in development charges in 2023. Sancton's illustration is that if that amount had instead been borrowed over 30 years at 4.5 percent, annual debt charges would run roughly $164 million, translating to an average property-tax increase across the province of slightly more than 0.5 percent. Modest, on its own. But if similar borrowing recurred every year, the cumulative effect reaches about 15 percent by the end of the 30-year period. He is careful to describe this as an order-of-magnitude illustration, not a forecast.
Fast-growing regions carry more of it. In Halton Region, combined 2024 development-charge revenues for the region and its lower-tier municipalities came to $384 million. Borrowed on the same terms, the paper estimates an average property-tax increase of slightly less than 2 percent. And for the water and wastewater portion specifically, it cites an estimate that user fees in Halton would need to rise by an additional 5 percent in each of the following 10 years if those costs were shifted into rates.
Five percent a year for a decade compounds. That is roughly 63 percent higher by year ten, before any of the ordinary inflationary increases a utility would have applied anyway.
To put that on a real rate structure: the City of Toronto funds Toronto Water entirely through rates and user fees, with a Block 1 rate of $4.8629 per cubic metre effective January 1, 2026. The city's 2026 interim rate approval put the 3.75 percent increase at about $40 more annually for a household using 230 cubic metres, for an estimated total of $1,118 in 2026. Toronto is not one of Sancton's worked examples, and a growth-driven rate shift is not what produced that increase. But the scale is instructive. A cumulative increase of the size modelled for Halton, applied to a bill of roughly $1,100, would add something in the neighbourhood of $700 a year.