National Home Prices Down 4.3% With Toronto Off 20% From Peak in Sixth Monthly Decline

The Composite 11-city index stood at 298.22 in May 2026. That puts the national benchmark down 1.0% from April on a seasonally adjusted basis, 0.7% lower on an unadjusted basis, and 4.3% below its May 2025 level. On a from-peak basis, the composite is 8.0% below its April 2022 high — a national drawdown that masks much larger declines in specific markets.

Three patterns in the May release are worth flagging up front. First, the decline is now sequential and persistent: this is the sixth straight monthly drop and continues a year-over-year contraction that has run for more than twelve consecutive months. National Bank's Monthly Economic Monitor noted earlier in the spring that sales had been falling for six months before stabilizing, listings had climbed to their highest level since October 2019, and prices were down for five consecutive months in major centres. May extends that pattern.

Second, the slowdown is broad but not uniform. Out of the original 11 CMAs, six declined year-over-year and five rose. The composite hides the divergence. Third, the from-peak picture remains the most useful single frame for owners. Year-over-year tells you what changed since last May. From-peak tells you where your equity sits versus the high-water mark most owners used to anchor renovation budgets, refinance assumptions, and HELOC math.

The year-over-year ranking in May 2026 sets up a clean split between Ontario and the rest of the country.

The three steepest declines all sit in markets that ran hot through 2021 and 2022 — the same markets where ultra-low rates and constrained supply produced the largest peak-to-trough corrections when conditions reversed. Hamilton is the headline decliner at −9.0%. Toronto follows at −8.1%, and Vancouver rounds out the bottom three at −5.7%.

At the other end, Québec City is doing something the composite line cannot show: it has not only avoided the national correction, it has set a new index high. Its 10.4% year-over-year gain is the strongest in the report, and its from-peak measure is 0.0% — May 2026 is the peak. Winnipeg follows at +5.9%, Montréal at +2.9%. The Prairie and Québec markets are moving in a different direction from Ontario and BC's largest cities, and the split has been visible in monthly bulletins for most of the past year.

What this divergence signals is contested. It could mean Québec and the Prairies have already found their floor and are working through a different rate-and-affordability dynamic. It could mean Ontario and BC are mid-correction. The data does not say which. What the data does say is that "the Canadian housing market" is no longer a useful single phrase for a homeowner trying to understand their own position.

For Ontario owners, the year-over-year number is the warning light. The from-peak number is the dashboard reading.

Toronto's HPI sits 20.7% below its April 2022 peak in seasonally adjusted terms. Hamilton is 23.4% below its May 2022 peak. Both figures are large enough that a typical owner who bought at or near the top, or who used a 2022 appraisal as the basis for refinancing, is now operating with materially less equity than that benchmark implied. This is not a forecast. It is the index level today against the index level then.

The drawdown is also broader than just the top two markets. The May 2026 table for "other metropolitan areas" shows a tail of Ontario CMAs with comparable or larger from-peak declines:

• Barrie: −27.6% from peak
• Oshawa: −25.2%
• Kitchener: −21.6%
• Peterborough: −21.0%
• London: −20.8%
• St. Catharines: −20.0%

For owners in those markets, the practical question is not whether prices have come down — that is settled — but how much the new index level changes what they can do next.

The methodology matters here. The Teranet–National Bank HPI is built from repeat-sales pairs, tracking the same properties over time rather than averaging listing prices. That approach controls for quality and composition, which is why the index is the cleaner read on equity changes than headline averages. The index is showing a structural move, not a mix shift.

The May 2026 print does not reveal whether the national index has reached a floor. Two signals will matter in the July release for June data.

The first is whether the divergence widens or narrows. Québec City setting a new peak while Toronto and Hamilton extend their drawdowns is the most visible split in the data. If that divergence persists or grows, the "Canadian housing market" frame becomes even less useful, and city-by-city analysis becomes the only reliable read.

The second is whether the monthly decline begins to flatten in the major correction markets. Sequential decline durations matter — six consecutive months in May, with sales data suggesting a possible stabilization earlier in the spring. A smaller monthly drop in June would suggest the rate of decline is easing. A larger one would suggest the correction has more to run.

For owners in Ontario's hardest-hit markets, neither signal changes the from-peak position today. That figure is fixed by the current index level, and the practical implications for HELOC capacity, refinance terms, and property tax assessment are present right now — whether or not the national index finds a floor in the next release.

GTA owners watching their equity cushion can review the latest GTA benchmark and listings update.

For context on Toronto's price retreat against 2020 levels, see how Toronto home prices fell to 2020 levels earlier this year.

The CREA February release covered the same composite trend earlier in the year: CREA February 2026 data unpacked.

On the balance-sheet side, Q4 2025 mortgage debt data showed a similar divergence between debt growth and value, with Canadian mortgage debt climbing 4.2% in Q4 2025 while values slipped.

Forecasters have also adjusted: TD Economics slashed its 2026 housing forecast this spring after predicting gains in December.