Equifax Says Property Values Fell 3% Nationally, Pushing More Owners Into Negative Equity at Renewal
Why a Modest National Decline Can Close Doors at Renewal, and How to Check Where Your Own Mortgage Stands
By
Published: September 30, 2026, 12:04 p.m. ET
Fact-checked · , including Government of Canada, OSFI & Department of Finance Canada
Credit: Homeowner.ca
Key Takeaways
•Equifax Canada told a Toronto mortgage conference that property values have fallen 3% nationally, raising loan-to-value ratios and limiting refinancing options for some owners at renewal.
•The line that matters for most renewers is 80% loan-to-value, not zero equity: an uninsured borrower above it can find that a competing federally regulated lender cannot take the mortgage on.
•Mortgage delinquency is still low at 0.3% of balances, but it is rising and concentrated in Ontario, where stress is also showing up first in homeowners' other debts.
Equifax Canada has put a number on something many homeowners have sensed for a while. Speaking at MortgageFest Canada in Toronto, in remarks reported on September 30, 2026, Lindsay Zwart, Equifax Canada's director of solutions for mortgage and housing, said the credit bureau has recorded a 3% national decline in property values. The consequence she described was specific: more existing homeowners facing negative equity, higher loan-to-value ratios and refinancing constraints at renewal. The same presentation put outstanding mortgage balances at $1.97 trillion and mortgage delinquency at 0.3% of balances, about 30% higher than a year earlier.
Here is the reframe. A falling home value does not change your monthly payment. It does not trigger a letter from your lender. It sits quietly on the balance sheet until the one moment it becomes decisive: when your term ends and you try to move your mortgage, add to it, or negotiate from a position of strength. If you bought or refinanced near the 2022 peak, that is when a modest national number can turn into a very personal constraint, even with a spotless payment record.
This article explains what Equifax reported and what it did not, how a 3% decline moves a loan-to-value ratio, why the effect concentrates at renewal, and how to check your own position early. It does not forecast prices or rates, and it does not rank lenders. The national figure is an average. Your house, your balance and your lender's valuation are what decide your options.
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What Equifax Reported at MortgageFest
The Figures, in Proportion
The remarks were covered by Canadian Mortgage Professional's report on Equifax's latest risk trends, published September 30, a week after the conference. It was a presentation to brokers, not a formal data release, and that matters for how the figures should be read. Several come without a stated measurement period, index or population. The table below sets each one against what it does and does not establish.
3% national decline in property values
Equifax's national read on values
The period, index or regions behind it; how any single home has moved
$1.97 trillion in mortgage balances, up about 4%
Outstanding mortgage debt, growth attributed mainly to renewal activity
That more people are buying; much of the growth reflects existing loans rolling over
$2.68 trillion in total consumer debt
All consumer credit, mortgages included
How stretched any individual household is
0.3% mortgage delinquency, about 30% higher year over year
Share of outstanding balances in arrears
A crisis; the level remains low even as it rises
73% of new mortgages variable-rate or short-term
Product mix at origination
Which products borrowers will choose next time
Insolvencies at their highest level since 2009
Bankruptcies and consumer proposals
That renewals alone caused them
Two figures deserve extra care. The first is the headline. The report states that "Equifax has recorded a 3% decrease in property values nationally," and nothing more about how it was measured. Treat it as a directional signal from a credible data source, not a precise index you can apply to your own address.
The second is the product mix. With 73% of new mortgages in variable-rate or shorter terms and only 27% in five-year fixed, Zwart argued the market should stop thinking about a single "great renewal." In her words: "Instead of the great renewal, I think forward-looking, we need to be looking at the constant renewal." More borrowers will face a renewal decision every two, three or four years. Every one of those decisions is a moment when property value can matter.
Equifax also flagged an Ontario-specific risk: at least $216 million in mortgage balances that were both severely delinquent and flagged by fraud-detection tools, exposure that had not been identified when the loans were made. A fraud flag is a risk signal, not proof of fraud, and it describes lender portfolios rather than typical homeowners.
The remarks were covered by Canadian Mortgage Professional's report on Equifax's latest risk trends, published September 30, a week after the conference. It was a presentation to brokers, not a formal data release, and that matters for how the figures should be read. Several come without a stated measurement period, index or population. The table below sets each one against what it does and does not establish.
3% national decline in property values
Equifax's national read on values
The period, index or regions behind it; how any single home has moved
$1.97 trillion in mortgage balances, up about 4%
Outstanding mortgage debt, growth attributed mainly to renewal activity
That more people are buying; much of the growth reflects existing loans rolling over
$2.68 trillion in total consumer debt
All consumer credit, mortgages included
How stretched any individual household is
0.3% mortgage delinquency, about 30% higher year over year
Share of outstanding balances in arrears
A crisis; the level remains low even as it rises
73% of new mortgages variable-rate or short-term
Product mix at origination
Which products borrowers will choose next time
Insolvencies at their highest level since 2009
Bankruptcies and consumer proposals
That renewals alone caused them
Two figures deserve extra care. The first is the headline. The report states that "Equifax has recorded a 3% decrease in property values nationally," and nothing more about how it was measured. Treat it as a directional signal from a credible data source, not a precise index you can apply to your own address.
The second is the product mix. With 73% of new mortgages in variable-rate or shorter terms and only 27% in five-year fixed, Zwart argued the market should stop thinking about a single "great renewal." In her words: "Instead of the great renewal, I think forward-looking, we need to be looking at the constant renewal." More borrowers will face a renewal decision every two, three or four years. Every one of those decisions is a moment when property value can matter.
Equifax also flagged an Ontario-specific risk: at least $216 million in mortgage balances that were both severely delinquent and flagged by fraud-detection tools, exposure that had not been identified when the loans were made. A fraud flag is a risk signal, not proof of fraud, and it describes lender portfolios rather than typical homeowners.
Loan-to-value, or LTV, is your total secured debt divided by your home's value. The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada's guide to borrowing against home equity defines equity as the appraised value of the home minus the mortgage, any home equity line of credit and any other loans secured by the property. That definition does two useful things. It tells you the value that counts is an appraised value, not a hopeful one. And it tells you a HELOC belongs in the calculation, not just the first mortgage.
The same guidance sets out the benchmark that shapes most decisions: financial institutions will usually let total borrowing secured against a home reach 80% of its value. On a $250,000 home, that caps secured borrowing at $200,000. When the value falls, the dollar amount of that 80% ceiling falls with it, even though your balance has not moved.
What 3% Does, and Does Not Do
Strictly, negative equity means owing more than the home is worth. A 3% decline on its own only creates that condition for owners who had less than 3% equity to begin with. For most renewers, the more relevant line sits much higher, at 80%. The arithmetic is simple: if your balance holds steady and your value drops 3%, your LTV rises by about 3% of itself.
6 rows · 3 columnsTap a header to sort
70%
72.2%
No
75%
77.3%
No
77.6%
80.0%
Right at the line
78%
80.4%
Yes
80%
82.5%
Already there, now further above
85%
87.6%
Already above; gap widens
Illustrative calculation: new LTV = old LTV ÷ 0.97. Your principal payments over the term push the other way and may offset part of the change.
The takeaway is sharper than the headline suggests. A 3% national decline, by itself, only pushes you across 80% if you were already sitting at roughly 77.6% or higher. That is a narrow band. The borrowers most exposed are the ones Equifax's figure cannot see: owners in local markets that fell by more than the national average, owners who added a HELOC on top of their mortgage, and owners who bought near the 2022 peak with thin down payments and have had only a few years of principal repayment since.
Equity, LTV and the Number Lenders Watch
Loan-to-value, or LTV, is your total secured debt divided by your home's value. The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada's guide to borrowing against home equity defines equity as the appraised value of the home minus the mortgage, any home equity line of credit and any other loans secured by the property. That definition does two useful things. It tells you the value that counts is an appraised value, not a hopeful one. And it tells you a HELOC belongs in the calculation, not just the first mortgage.
The same guidance sets out the benchmark that shapes most decisions: financial institutions will usually let total borrowing secured against a home reach 80% of its value. On a $250,000 home, that caps secured borrowing at $200,000. When the value falls, the dollar amount of that 80% ceiling falls with it, even though your balance has not moved.
What 3% Does, and Does Not Do
Strictly, negative equity means owing more than the home is worth. A 3% decline on its own only creates that condition for owners who had less than 3% equity to begin with. For most renewers, the more relevant line sits much higher, at 80%. The arithmetic is simple: if your balance holds steady and your value drops 3%, your LTV rises by about 3% of itself.
6 rows · 3 columnsTap a header to sort
70%
72.2%
No
75%
77.3%
No
77.6%
80.0%
Right at the line
78%
80.4%
Yes
80%
82.5%
Already there, now further above
85%
87.6%
Already above; gap widens
Illustrative calculation: new LTV = old LTV ÷ 0.97. Your principal payments over the term push the other way and may offset part of the change.
The takeaway is sharper than the headline suggests. A 3% national decline, by itself, only pushes you across 80% if you were already sitting at roughly 77.6% or higher. That is a narrow band. The borrowers most exposed are the ones Equifax's figure cannot see: owners in local markets that fell by more than the national average, owners who added a HELOC on top of their mortgage, and owners who bought near the 2022 peak with thin down payments and have had only a few years of principal repayment since.
Note
A national average blends markets that rose with markets that fell. Your home could be down more than 3%, or not down at all. The only valuation that decides a switch or refinance is the one your lender or its appraiser accepts.
Why the Problem Shows Up at Renewal, Not on Your Statement
Staying Put and Moving Are Different Transactions
Renewing with your current lender and switching to a competitor are not the same process. When you stay, your existing lender offers new terms on the loan it already holds. When you switch, the new lender is making a loan, and it has to approve you on its own criteria. That is where value re-enters the picture.
For federally regulated banks, the rule is written into law. Section 418 of the Bank Act says a bank shall not make or refinance a residential mortgage loan if the loan, together with any mortgage with an equal or prior claim, "would exceed 80 per cent of the value of the property at the time of the loan," unless the excess is covered by approved mortgage insurance. Note the last four words. The value that counts is today's value, not the value when you bought.
This is the mechanism behind the constraint Equifax described. An uninsured borrower whose LTV has drifted above 80% can apply to a competing bank for a better rate and discover that the file cannot be approved as an uninsured loan. The borrower has never missed a payment. The problem is arithmetic, not credit.
What Changed in 2024, and What Did Not
Two reforms made switching easier, and both still leave value in play. For uninsured borrowers, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions stopped prescribing its minimum qualifying rate for straight switches between federally regulated lenders as of November 21, 2024, provided the loan amount and remaining amortization do not increase. OSFI was explicit that lenders should still assess a switch like any new origination, including their own risk appetite. The stress test went away. Underwriting did not.
For insured borrowers, the federal government's strengthened Canadian Mortgage Charter allows all insured mortgage holders to switch lenders at renewal without another stress test. Because those loans already carry default insurance, a rising LTV does not collide with the 80% ceiling in the same way.
Staying with your current lender, same balance
Your lender sets the renewal offer
Least directly; but you lose leverage if you cannot credibly move
Insured mortgage, straight switch
Yes, by the new lender
Less exposed; default insurance already covers the high-ratio portion
Uninsured, straight switch, LTV at or below 80%
Yes; no prescribed stress test since Nov 2024
Appraisal may still be required and must support the value
Uninsured, switch, LTV above 80%
Yes
Federally regulated lenders are generally restricted from lending above 80% uninsured
Refinance: adding to the balance or extending amortization
Yes, full qualification
Falls outside the straight-switch exemption; the 80% ceiling limits how much equity you can access
The trap in that fourth row is subtle. Your current lender already holds the loan, and it knows a competitor may not be able to take you. That weakens your negotiating position on rate precisely when you can least afford it. Lenders outside the federal framework, such as provincially regulated credit unions, follow their own rules, so it is worth asking, but the terms and costs will differ.
Renewing with your current lender and switching to a competitor are not the same process. When you stay, your existing lender offers new terms on the loan it already holds. When you switch, the new lender is making a loan, and it has to approve you on its own criteria. That is where value re-enters the picture.
For federally regulated banks, the rule is written into law. Section 418 of the Bank Act says a bank shall not make or refinance a residential mortgage loan if the loan, together with any mortgage with an equal or prior claim, "would exceed 80 per cent of the value of the property at the time of the loan," unless the excess is covered by approved mortgage insurance. Note the last four words. The value that counts is today's value, not the value when you bought.
This is the mechanism behind the constraint Equifax described. An uninsured borrower whose LTV has drifted above 80% can apply to a competing bank for a better rate and discover that the file cannot be approved as an uninsured loan. The borrower has never missed a payment. The problem is arithmetic, not credit.
What Changed in 2024, and What Did Not
Two reforms made switching easier, and both still leave value in play. For uninsured borrowers, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions stopped prescribing its minimum qualifying rate for straight switches between federally regulated lenders as of November 21, 2024, provided the loan amount and remaining amortization do not increase. OSFI was explicit that lenders should still assess a switch like any new origination, including their own risk appetite. The stress test went away. Underwriting did not.
For insured borrowers, the federal government's strengthened Canadian Mortgage Charter allows all insured mortgage holders to switch lenders at renewal without another stress test. Because those loans already carry default insurance, a rising LTV does not collide with the 80% ceiling in the same way.
Staying with your current lender, same balance
Your lender sets the renewal offer
Least directly; but you lose leverage if you cannot credibly move
Insured mortgage, straight switch
Yes, by the new lender
Less exposed; default insurance already covers the high-ratio portion
Uninsured, straight switch, LTV at or below 80%
Yes; no prescribed stress test since Nov 2024
Appraisal may still be required and must support the value
Uninsured, switch, LTV above 80%
Yes
Federally regulated lenders are generally restricted from lending above 80% uninsured
Refinance: adding to the balance or extending amortization
Yes, full qualification
Falls outside the straight-switch exemption; the 80% ceiling limits how much equity you can access
The trap in that fourth row is subtle. Your current lender already holds the loan, and it knows a competitor may not be able to take you. That weakens your negotiating position on rate precisely when you can least afford it. Lenders outside the federal framework, such as provincially regulated credit unions, follow their own rules, so it is worth asking, but the terms and costs will differ.
Zwart said the 0.3% mortgage delinquency rate is concentrated mainly in Ontario. That matches the bureau's most recent quarterly data. Equifax Canada's Q2 2026 Market Pulse reported that 90-day-plus missed mortgage payments in Ontario have risen every quarter for the last four years.
The same release clarifies a figure that is easy to misread. The "12.5%" rise cited at MortgageFest is the year-over-year increase in the 90-day-plus non-mortgage delinquency rate among mortgage holders, which reached 0.77%. It is a growth rate on a small base, not a delinquency level. And it is largely an Ontario story: in Ontario that rate rose 27% to 0.86%, while outside Ontario it rose just 2.1%. Equifax's Rebecca Oakes linked the pattern to "the persistent pressure of higher interest rates and mortgage renewal shocks," noting that some Ontario mortgage holders are "struggling to keep up with other credit obligations."
Why does that sequence matter? Households under strain tend to protect the mortgage first. Missed payments on credit cards, car loans and lines of credit are often the earlier sign that carrying costs are biting. The data shows an association within the homeowner population, not proof that mortgage costs caused it, but the direction is consistent.
Values and Equity Where Prices Ran Highest
The federal housing agency has drawn the same regional line. In its February 2026 analysis of the renewal wave, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation said Toronto faces "declining home prices and slower sales, reducing the ability to sell quickly or rely on equity during financial challenges," and that first-time buyers from the pandemic period in high-priced regions are especially vulnerable.
That is the overlap worth watching: recent buyers, high-priced markets, thin equity and a renewal date. No single data point here justifies province-by-province conclusions, and Ontario's figures describe averages across very different markets. But if you are in that overlap, the national 3% is likely an understatement of your own exposure.
Zwart said the 0.3% mortgage delinquency rate is concentrated mainly in Ontario. That matches the bureau's most recent quarterly data. Equifax Canada's Q2 2026 Market Pulse reported that 90-day-plus missed mortgage payments in Ontario have risen every quarter for the last four years.
The same release clarifies a figure that is easy to misread. The "12.5%" rise cited at MortgageFest is the year-over-year increase in the 90-day-plus non-mortgage delinquency rate among mortgage holders, which reached 0.77%. It is a growth rate on a small base, not a delinquency level. And it is largely an Ontario story: in Ontario that rate rose 27% to 0.86%, while outside Ontario it rose just 2.1%. Equifax's Rebecca Oakes linked the pattern to "the persistent pressure of higher interest rates and mortgage renewal shocks," noting that some Ontario mortgage holders are "struggling to keep up with other credit obligations."
Why does that sequence matter? Households under strain tend to protect the mortgage first. Missed payments on credit cards, car loans and lines of credit are often the earlier sign that carrying costs are biting. The data shows an association within the homeowner population, not proof that mortgage costs caused it, but the direction is consistent.
Values and Equity Where Prices Ran Highest
The federal housing agency has drawn the same regional line. In its February 2026 analysis of the renewal wave, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation said Toronto faces "declining home prices and slower sales, reducing the ability to sell quickly or rely on equity during financial challenges," and that first-time buyers from the pandemic period in high-priced regions are especially vulnerable.
That is the overlap worth watching: recent buyers, high-priced markets, thin equity and a renewal date. No single data point here justifies province-by-province conclusions, and Ontario's figures describe averages across very different markets. But if you are in that overlap, the national 3% is likely an understatement of your own exposure.
Checking Your Own Numbers Before the Renewal Letter Arrives
Get the Two Inputs Right
Your LTV needs two numbers, and both are easy to get wrong.
The balance. Use every loan secured against the home: the mortgage, any HELOC balance and any other registered charge. Your lender's online statement or a call to the lender will give you the current figure. Your renewal statement will state it too, but that arrives late.
The value. This is where most self-estimates go astray. A municipal property assessment is not a lender's value. In Ontario, the Municipal Property Assessment Corporation still values properties as of January 1, 2016, because the province postponed the 2020 reassessment. MPAC itself notes that sale prices often differ from assessed values. An Ontario assessment can be years out of step with today's market, in either direction. A more useful reference is recent comparable sales near you, understood as an estimate that a lender's appraiser may not accept.
Tip
Run your LTV twice: once with your best estimate of current value, and once with that figure reduced by 5%. If the second result lands above 80% and your mortgage is uninsured, treat switching as uncertain and start early.
Start Well Before the 21-Day Notice
Federally regulated lenders must send a renewal statement at least 21 days before your term ends, including your balance, rate, term and fees. That is the legal minimum, and it is too short to resolve a valuation problem. The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada's renewal guidance advises starting to shop around a few months before your term ends rather than waiting for the letter. It also notes that a new lender must approve a switch, may use different criteria, and may charge appraisal, discharge and other fees.
If your LTV is near or above 80%, a practical window is four to six months ahead. That leaves time to get a competing lender's view of your value, weigh switching costs against any rate difference, and go back to your current lender with a real alternative, or learn early that you do not have one. If your LTV is comfortably lower, the timing pressure is lighter, but the same preparation still strengthens your negotiating position.
Federally regulated lenders must send a renewal statement at least 21 days before your term ends, including your balance, rate, term and fees. That is the legal minimum, and it is too short to resolve a valuation problem. The Financial Consumer Agency of Canada's renewal guidance advises starting to shop around a few months before your term ends rather than waiting for the letter. It also notes that a new lender must approve a switch, may use different criteria, and may charge appraisal, discharge and other fees.
If your LTV is near or above 80%, a practical window is four to six months ahead. That leaves time to get a competing lender's view of your value, weigh switching costs against any rate difference, and go back to your current lender with a real alternative, or learn early that you do not have one. If your LTV is comfortably lower, the timing pressure is lighter, but the same preparation still strengthens your negotiating position.
Equifax's figure did not arrive alone. CREA's August figures, as reported by Canadian Mortgage Trends showed the national MLS Home Price Index stable month over month and down 3% year over year, while the national average sale price was up 0.6%. Two independent sources pointing the same way adds confidence. The gap between the benchmark and the average is a reminder that the measure you choose shapes the answer.
Several limits are worth holding onto:
A 3% national decline does not mean every property fell 3%, and it does not mean a renewal will be refused.
Negative equity in the strict sense affects owners whose debts exceed their home's value; most borrowers affected by the 3% will see thinner equity, not negative equity.
Mortgage delinquency at 0.3% is low. The rise is the signal; the level is not a crisis.
Rising insolvencies and delinquencies sit alongside renewals, but the data does not show renewals caused them.
What the data does support is narrower and more useful. Property values have softened. Loan-to-value ratios rise when they do. The 80% line governs what federally regulated lenders can offer uninsured borrowers. And that constraint surfaces at renewal, when a borrower's options are tested. Knowing your own numbers early is the difference between negotiating and accepting.
Equifax's figure did not arrive alone. CREA's August figures, as reported by Canadian Mortgage Trends showed the national MLS Home Price Index stable month over month and down 3% year over year, while the national average sale price was up 0.6%. Two independent sources pointing the same way adds confidence. The gap between the benchmark and the average is a reminder that the measure you choose shapes the answer.
Several limits are worth holding onto:
A 3% national decline does not mean every property fell 3%, and it does not mean a renewal will be refused.
Negative equity in the strict sense affects owners whose debts exceed their home's value; most borrowers affected by the 3% will see thinner equity, not negative equity.
Mortgage delinquency at 0.3% is low. The rise is the signal; the level is not a crisis.
Rising insolvencies and delinquencies sit alongside renewals, but the data does not show renewals caused them.
What the data does support is narrower and more useful. Property values have softened. Loan-to-value ratios rise when they do. The 80% line governs what federally regulated lenders can offer uninsured borrowers. And that constraint surfaces at renewal, when a borrower's options are tested. Knowing your own numbers early is the difference between negotiating and accepting.
Ryan is the founder of Homeowner.ca and a proud Canadian homeowner based in Guelph, Ontario. Over his 25-year career in digital publishing, he has focused on transforming complex information into clear, practical guidance that helps people make confident, well-informed decisions.
Canadian Mortgage Professional. (2026). Revealed: The Canadian mortgage market's latest risk trends. Retrieved from https://www.mpamag.com/
Equifax Canada. (2026). Non-Mortgage Delinquency Growth Slows in Second Quarter, but Ontario Homeowners Remain Under Pressure (Q2 2026 Market Pulse). Retrieved from https://www.equifax.ca/
Financial Consumer Agency of Canada. (2025). Borrowing against home equity. Retrieved from https://www.canada.ca/
Show 8 more sourcesHide additional sources
Financial Consumer Agency of Canada. (2025). Renewing your mortgage. Retrieved from https://www.canada.ca/
Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. (2024). Mortgage insurance. Retrieved from https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/
Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions. (2024). OSFI exempts uninsured mortgage straight switches from prescribed MQR, implements portfolio LTI limits. Retrieved from https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/
Department of Finance Canada. (2024). Government announces boldest mortgage reforms in decades to unlock homeownership for more Canadians. Retrieved from https://www.canada.ca/
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. (2026). Mortgage renewal wave strains some regions and borrowers. Retrieved from https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/
Municipal Property Assessment Corporation. (n.d.). Homeowners Hub. Retrieved from https://www.mpac.ca/
Canadian Mortgage Trends. (2026). August home sales down 6.9% as economic headwinds threaten market momentum: CREA. Retrieved from https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/
