Rates.ca Survey Finds 45% of Recent Renewers Spending Over Half Their Budget on Mortgage

A Squeeze Measured In Budget Share, Not Basis Points

The survey, which polled 1,516 Canadian adults in late July, frames the strain in the terms households actually feel: share of budget. After renewing, 40 per cent of recent renewers say the mortgage consumes 50 to 70 per cent of their monthly budget, and another 5 per cent say it takes more than 70 per cent, according to the Rates.ca findings. Borrowing costs rose for 82 per cent of those whose rate changed at renewal, with the most common increase landing between two and roughly five percentage points.

Not everyone lost. About 13 per cent of renewers actually secured a lower rate — most likely the borrowers who had locked in at six per cent or higher during the 2023–24 peak. As one mortgage agent quoted in the survey put it, the outcome "is almost entirely about which year you signed."

The Pressure Is Uneven By Design

The averages hide who is carrying the weight. Younger owners are the sharpest case: 90 per cent of those aged 18 to 34 renewed at a higher rate, and 56 per cent now say the mortgage takes 50 to 70 per cent of their budget, with six per cent past the 70 per cent mark. The reason is arithmetic, not age. This cohort disproportionately bought in 2020 and 2021 at record-low rates and large balances, so every point of increase lands on a bigger principal.

Newcomers show a nearly identical pattern — 56 per cent of foreign-born owners report the 50-to-70 per cent band, versus 35 per cent of Canadian-born borrowers. Income sorts the rest. Among households earning over $100,000, most say the mortgage stays under half their budget; among those earning under $60,000, eight per cent say it now consumes more than 70 per cent. The squeeze scales inversely with the cushion a household had to begin with.

The generational skew has a mirror image at the other end of the age range, where fixed incomes leave less slack to absorb a jump — a pattern Homeowner.ca examined in its look at near-retiree renewals.

Understanding the moment requires understanding the wave. Roughly 1.8 million Canadian mortgages were due to renew between September 2025 and September 2026, cresting in June 2026, according to BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic, with a smaller wave following in 2027. Most of those renewing were, in his words, coming off "the lowest-of-low interest rates from five years prior."

The gap between then and now is the whole story. Five-year fixed rates sat below two per cent in 2021 and variable rates near 1.5 per cent. Today a five-year fixed runs about 3.92 per cent insured and 4.29 per cent uninsured. A borrower is not renewing into a bad rate by historical standards — they are renewing out of an extraordinary one, and the payment reflects the distance travelled.

Homeowner.ca has tracked how that timing is reshaping borrower behaviour in its coverage of the renewal wave peaking.

Percentage points are abstract. Dollars per month are not, and the shift from one to the other is where the survey's strain becomes concrete.

Consider a real example from the Rates.ca analysis: a homeowner with a $500,000 mortgage at 1.99 per cent paid about $2,115 a month. Five years on, with the balance down to roughly $418,000, renewing at 4.29 per cent pushes the payment to about $2,594. That is $479 more every month — nearly $5,750 a year — for the same house, the same family, the same square footage.

A useful shortcut circulates among mortgage brokers: every one percentage point of rate increase costs roughly $50 a month for every $100,000 you still owe. It is rough, but it turns a renewal letter into a number you can estimate before you call anyone. The table below applies that rule so you can find your own approximate monthly increase.

Rough monthly estimates based on the broker rule of thumb of about $50 per month per $100,000 owed, per percentage point of rate increase. Use it to gauge scale, not as a precise quote.

Even sizeable jumps have proven more absorbable than feared for many households, a shift Homeowner.ca traced in its coverage of easing default worries.