New National Study Reveals a Frozen Market Where Owners Can't Move, Buyers Can't Enter, and the Homes Being Built Aren't the Ones People Want
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CPA Canada released its 2026 Housing Study on April 7, drawing on a Leger survey of 1,525 Canadians conducted between March 20 and 22. The headline finding — that 55% of homeowners plan to stay in their current home for the foreseeable future — frames a market defined less by what buyers can afford and more by what owners won't do.
This isn't just an affordability story. It's a mobility story. When existing owners don't move, the homes they occupy don't become available. That means fewer family-sized listings for growing households, fewer entry points for first-time buyers, and a self-reinforcing cycle that keeps turnover low even as demand builds behind the dam.
David-Alexandre Brassard, CPA Canada's chief economist, put it directly: the findings point to a housing market that is increasingly stuck, with many homeowners holding onto starter homes longer than expected, reducing turnover and slowing overall market activity.
The core of the survey paints a picture of broad-based inertia across Canada's ownership class.
Only 10% of homeowners said they were looking to upsize. Among those who are considering a change, 61% report being effectively sidelined — either waiting for prices to improve or facing financial constraints tied to selling. The market isn't frozen because people don't want to move. It's frozen because the economics of moving don't work.
The 55-and-older cohort is especially relevant here. Just 19% of homeowners in that age group plan to downsize. That's the demographic most housing analysts have long assumed would release three- and four-bedroom homes back into the market as their children leave. It's not happening at the rate the market needs.
According to Statistics Canada's 2022 Canadian Housing Survey, the top reason baby boomers moved within their province was to reduce housing costs — not to right-size, not to free up space for younger families. When they do move, they're economizing, not liberating inventory. And most aren't moving at all.
When owners don't list, the knock-on effects compound quickly.
A homeowner who stays put in a starter home doesn't just remove one listing from the market. They block a chain of transactions that would otherwise ripple upward: a first-time buyer enters, a young family upsizes, a retiree downsizes. That chain is stalled. CREA's data shows that national home sales in recent months have fallen to levels not seen since 2008, with the sales-to-new-listings ratio sitting around 45.9% — indicating a shift toward more balanced or buyer-tilted conditions that nonetheless aren't producing volume.
The CPA Canada survey adds context to those transaction numbers. It's not that buyers disappeared. It's that the inventory they need — existing homes priced by motivated sellers — isn't materializing because sellers themselves are stuck. In markets like the GTA, Toronto home prices have already fallen 7.4% to 2020 levels, yet sales volume remains muted.
For homeowners who are considering listing, the signal from this survey is worth absorbing: the buyer pool is thinner than it looks. Nearly half of all Canadians (46%) say homeownership is becoming harder to achieve. Only 3% describe housing as widely accessible. And among those who do buy, nearly 60% of current homeowners say they received financial help to purchase their first home, with roughly one-third of those receiving more than $50,000.
CMHC's 2025 Mortgage Consumer Survey found that 41% of first-time buyers used gifts or inheritances averaging about $74,570 toward their down payment, and 65% of buyers said they paid the maximum they could afford. That means the "ready buyer" profile is narrower and more financially stretched than headline demand figures suggest.
Even as existing inventory stays locked up, the new homes entering the market aren't matching what buyers say they want.
Brassard noted a clear disconnect: about half of non-homeowners aspire to single-family homes or townhouses, yet these types of dwellings account for only about one-third of new construction. Condominiums, meanwhile, attract just 15% of non-homeowners as a preferred option, and fewer than one in ten Canadians view a starter home or condo as a viable first step into ownership.
The construction data bear this out. CMHC reported that condominium apartment starts across Canada's six largest metropolitan areas hit a record 57,121 units in 2023, while single-detached homes fell to just 15% of total housing starts — a record-low share.
And the pipeline isn't self-correcting. CMHC's 2026 Housing Market Outlook warns of weaker demand and more unsold homes, particularly in the condominium market, projecting that new home construction will decline through 2028.
Total construction did rise 6% in 2025 to about 259,000 units, according to the agency's spring housing supply data. But the growth was concentrated in rental and "missing middle" forms — multiplexes, row homes, and low-rise apartments — not the detached and semi-detached homes most buyers prefer.
This is the structural bind: the homes being built don't match the homes people want, the existing homes people want aren't being listed, and the people who would list them can't afford to move.
The survey also reveals how dependent Canadian homeownership has become on external financial support.
Seventy-one per cent of homeowners share their housing costs with a partner or relative. Across all Canadians, 62% share housing expenses. Li Zhang, CPA Canada's financial literacy leader, framed it clearly: the path to homeownership increasingly depends on factors beyond income alone, with high home prices and slower wage growth — especially among younger Canadians — pushing many to rely on financial support or cost sharing.
CMHC's data reinforces this. Its 2025 Mortgage Consumer Survey found that 54% of buyers shared their home purchase with someone other than a spouse or partner. That's not a sign of a healthy ladder. It's a sign that the rungs are spaced too far apart for most people to climb alone.
Meanwhile, CMHC's analysis of mortgage renewals notes that many recent buyers face higher payments at renewal, with first-time and recent buyers often carrying limited equity. Arrears remain low — owners are managing — but the financial pressure means they're hunkering down rather than trading up. That deepens the same stuck-market dynamic the CPA Canada survey describes.
The CPA Canada study offers a snapshot of intentions. Whether those intentions translate into sustained low turnover depends on a few variables worth tracking.
The first is spring listing volume. If April and May listings in major markets remain below historical norms — particularly in the detached segment — the stuck-market thesis strengthens. CREA's monthly statistics and regional board data will be the first signal.
The second is CMHC's next round of condo-specific data. The combination of record condo supply, weak presale activity, and low buyer preference for condos creates conditions for oversupply to accelerate. OSFI has already flagged concerns about blanket condo appraisals potentially breaching federal LTV rules as prices decline.
The third is the mortgage renewal wave. As borrowers who locked in during 2020–2022 cycle into higher rates, the financial pressure on existing owners will intensify. The question is whether that pressure produces more listings (owners who capitulate) or fewer (owners who tighten budgets and stay put). The CPA Canada data, and CMHC's low-arrears finding, suggests the latter — for now.
And for homeowners watching their local market, the broader context matters. Toronto home prices have already fallen 7.4% to 2020 levels.
TD Economics has also slashed its national forecast, now expecting sales and prices to fall after predicting 9% gains in December. The stuck-market narrative isn't abstract. It's already shaping the numbers homeowners see when they check their local board.
The CPA Canada 2026 Housing Study also found that 90% of Canadians either own a home or hope to purchase one — confirming that the aspiration for homeownership remains near-universal even as perceptions of difficulty sharpen. The tension between that aspiration and actual market conditions is what makes the "stuck" dynamic self-reinforcing: demand doesn't disappear, but it can't convert into transactions when both sides of the market are constrained.
